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Mainland tourists’ willingness to come to Hong Kong to buy properties has increased, with five areas preferred
The latest UBS Evidence Lab China Housing Survey shows that 29% of mainland consumer respondents expressed their intention to buy property in Hong Kong after the stamp duty is abolished. This number is 4 percentage points higher than the April survey results, showing that the demand for Hong Kong property is accelerating.
Liang Zhanjia, a Hong Kong real estate analyst at UBS Investment Bank, said that the accelerated willingness of mainland homebuyers will be beneficial to the Hong Kong residential market, especially new home sales, which accounted for more than 50% of transaction volume in the first half of this year. In addition, the intention to move to Hong Kong also supports the bank's optimistic expectations for Hong Kong's future population growth, which is expected to drive a structural upward trend in residential rents, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5% from 2024 to 2030. As mortgage rates fall further, Hong Kong residential prices are expected to rebound by up to 5% in 2025
Mainland tourists’ willingness to come to Hong Kong to buy properties has increased, with five areas preferred
The latest UBS Evidence Lab China Housing Survey shows that 29% of mainland consumer respondents expressed their intention to buy property in Hong Kong after the stamp duty is abolished. This number is 4 percentage points higher than the April survey results, showing that the demand for Hong Kong property is accelerating.
Liang Zhanjia, a Hong Kong real estate analyst at UBS Investment Bank, said that the accelerated willingness of mainland homebuyers will be beneficial to the Hong Kong residential market, especially new home sales, which accounted for more than 50% of transaction volume in the first half of this year. In addition, the intention to move to Hong Kong also supports the bank's optimistic expectations for Hong Kong's future population growth, which is expected to drive a structural upward trend in residential rents, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5% from 2024 to 2030. As mortgage rates fall further, Hong Kong residential prices are expected to rebound by up to 5% in 2025
According to Bloomberg Industry Research analysis, if deposit growth remains unchanged from 2020 to 2023 and funds from the mainland continue to increase, Hong Kong’s total deposits are expected to reach HK$21.6 trillion (US$2.8 trillion) in 2030, compared with the end of 2023 A significant increase of HK$16.2 trillion.
In the long term, until the mainland economy fully recovers, the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar may maintain a high interest rate differential relative to the RMB. Mainland middle-class investors are more likely to move their assets to Hong Kong, as evidenced by the surge in southbound trading. According to relevant reports, the overseas investable assets of mainland Chinese residents are estimated to be approximately 28 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 9% of total investable assets, and more of these funds may be allocated to deposits in Hong Kong. Under the most optimistic scenario, Hong Kong's total deposits may reach HK$25.8 trillion in 2030, with mainland residents expected to contribute significantly, and the wealth management business of Hong Kong's banking industry is expected to continue to advance.
Wealth inheritance has been one of the hot topics in recent years. It is estimated that in the next few years, the world's wealth worth US$18.3 trillion will be passed down from the baby boomers to the younger generation. According to a recent report published by research organization Wealth-X, more than 680,000 people with a net worth of more than US$5 million will conduct inheritance planning in the next five years. Another report from Knight Frank also pointed out that millennials are expected to become the most affluent group. In 2023 alone, the number of people with wealth of more than US$30 million worldwide increased by 4.3%.
We see a similar phenomenon in Asia. It is expected that by 2030, some of the richest families in Asia will have inherited assets of approximately US$2.5 trillion.
In March, the Hong Kong SAR government relaunched the "New Capital Investor Entry Scheme" commonly known as "Investment Immigration 2.0", aiming to attract the world's richest people to settle in Hong Kong, bring funds to Hong Kong and stimulate new economic vitality. A latest survey by HSBC found that about 60% of mainland wealthy people who plan to settle in other cities in Asia believe that Hong Kong is the most ideal city to live in the region, higher than Singapore and Seoul, South Korea, which ranked second and third. They also plan to move to Hong Kong within the next five years. HSBC pointed out that respondents prefer Hong Kong over other Asian cities. The main attraction is that Hong Kong has obvious advantages in economic freedom, stable financial infrastructure, international network, high-quality education and reliable medical system.
The government launched the "New Capital Investor Entrant Scheme" in March this year. Financial Services and the Treasury Secretary Hui Ching-yu said that as of the end of May, the Investment Promotion Department had received a total of 251 applications and approved more than 100 net asset reviews. The Immigration Department has approved in principle more than 40 applications for stay for related investment. Among them, one application was temporarily approved to meet the investment requirements, and no one was formally approved by the Immigration Department for residence. Hui said that if all the applications received are approved, it is expected to bring 7.5 billion yuan in funds to Hong Kong.
In terms of Hong Kong universities, in addition to the University of Hong Kong, which ranks 17th, there are 6 other universities on the list. Among them, CUHK has risen 11 places from last year to 36th in the world; HKUST ranks 47th in the world, up 13 places from last year. PolyU and CityU both rose 8 places to 57th and 62nd respectively. Baptist University ranks 252nd, while Lingnan University ranks between 711th and 720th.
Deputy Secretary for Administration Cheuk Wing-hing said that as of November last year, various talent attraction measures had received more than 200,000 applications, of which more than 120,000 were approved, of which more than 47,000 applications for the High Talent Scheme were approved, demonstrating Hong Kong's attractiveness to global talents.
In terms of Hong Kong universities, in addition to the University of Hong Kong, which ranks 17th, there are 6 other universities on the list. Among them, CUHK has risen 11 places from last year to 36th in the world; HKUST ranks 47th in the world, up 13 places from last year. PolyU and CityU both rose 8 places to 57th and 62nd respectively. Baptist University ranks 252nd, while Lingnan University ranks between 711th and 720th.
Deputy Secretary for Administration Cheuk Wing-hing said that as of November last year, various talent attraction measures had received more than 200,000 applications, of which more than 120,000 were approved, of which more than 47,000 applications for the High Talent Scheme were approved, demonstrating Hong Kong's attractiveness to global talents.